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📊 Transparency first

How We Calculate Results

Every number on this site comes from a defined, consistent process. Here's exactly how tips are logged, settled, and counted.

The Core Rules

1. Only qualifying tips are counted

A tip qualifies for the public record only if the model confidence is ≥ 65%. Tips below this threshold are not published and not counted. This threshold has been fixed since day one and has not been changed retroactively.

2. Every qualifying tip is logged — wins and losses

There is no selective logging. If a tip qualifies (≥ 65% confidence) it goes into the public record regardless of result. Losers are not deleted. The record is not pruned. You can download the full CSV at any time and count the rows yourself.

3. Staking is standardised by confidence tier

All P&L is measured in units, not dollars. One unit = 1% of a notional starting bank.

BANKER (85%+ confidence) = 3 units staked
STRONG (75–84% confidence) = 2 units staked
VALUE (65–74% confidence) = 1 unit staked

Stakes are fixed at time of tip publication and not changed after the fact.

4. Odds used are Betfair exchange prices at time of tip

P&L is calculated against the Betfair back price available at the time the tip was generated (typically the morning market price). Exchange and bookmaker prices can differ, and commission, liquidity and availability vary by market and timing. Return on a winning bet = (odds − 1) × stake. Return on a losing bet = −stake.

5. Settlement is automatic and verified

Results are pulled from the sports database after match completion. An automated settlement verifier cross-checks tip outcomes against actual match scores. Open real-money Betfair bets are shown separately on the record page until they settle — they are not pre-counted as wins.

6. Stats are recalculated from scratch each sync

Strike rate, ROI, units P&L, and monthly breakdowns are all derived fresh from the underlying tip database on every sync cycle (approximately every 15 minutes). There are no manually edited headline numbers.

The Formulas

Strike Rate

Strike Rate = Wins ÷ (Wins + Losses) × 100

Settled results only. Void/abandoned matches are excluded. A 55% strike rate means 55 out of every 100 settled tips were correct.

Units P&L

Units P&L = Σ (pnl per tip)
where pnl = (odds − 1) × stake [WIN] or −stake [LOSS]

Cumulative profit/loss in units. A result of +201.9u means that following every qualifying tip at the specified stake would have returned 201.9 units of profit over the tracked period.

ROI

ROI = Total Units P&L ÷ Total Units Staked × 100

Return on investment as a percentage of total stake. Total units staked = 3u × BANKER tips + 2u × STRONG tips + 1u × VALUE tips.

What We Don't Do

Delete losing tips from the public record

Cherry-pick which tips to include in stats

Change the confidence threshold retroactively to improve past stats

Count open unresolved bets as wins before they settle

Manually adjust headline stats

Use best-possible odds (e.g. opening lines) to inflate returns

Operational Details & Limitations

How odds are captured

Odds are captured from the Betfair Exchange morning price, typically around 7am AEST, when the tip card is generated.

How stale odds are handled

If odds move significantly before match start, the recorded price may differ from the price available to a user at execution time.

Void/push/abandoned event handling

Void, push or abandoned events are excluded from strike rate and ROI calculations, but remain visible in the CSV record for transparency.

How Betfair exchange commission affects real returns

A typical 5% commission on winning exchange bets reduces actual user return compared with displayed gross P&L.

Why actual user outcomes may differ

Execution timing, odds movement, commission, market liquidity and bookmaker-versus-exchange pricing can all change real user results.

How duplicate tips are prevented

Tips are deduplicated by event, market, selection and publication context so the same bet is not counted multiple times.

How reissued tips are handled

If a tip is republished because of a rain delay, fixture delay or similar operational issue, only the original qualifying tip is counted in the public record.

Known limitations

The model can be wrong. Some sports have smaller sample sizes. Variance over short periods can make results look much better or worse than the long-term record.

Methodology changelog

DateChangeReason
2026-03-01Initial methodology establishedLaunch

Verify It Yourself

The full tip database is available as a public CSV download. Every row, every result.

⬇ Download Full CSV View Live Record

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tips are for informational purposes only.

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This site contains wagering-related analysis and is intended for Australian users aged 18+. Gambling involves risk. Please gamble responsibly.