PuntersEdge uses sport-specific data, machine-learning confidence bands and fixed staking tiers to publish selections. The model can find patterns — it cannot guarantee outcomes.
Different sports behave differently, so the input set changes by code, league and market maturity.
| Sport | Inputs considered |
|---|---|
| AFL | Recent form, team statistics, venue/weather conditions, injury reports and head-to-head history. |
| NRL | Recent form, team statistics, venue/weather conditions, injury reports and head-to-head history. |
| NBA | Team form, rest days, travel spots, home/away splits, roster availability and matchup context. |
| Tennis | Serve and return statistics, Elo ratings, surface type, recent form and player matchup history. |
| Soccer/EPL | Expected goals (xG), recent form, injury/news context, fixture congestion and weather where relevant. |
| Cricket/Darts/Snooker | Elo-based strength estimates, player/team form and event-specific context where reliable data exists. |
The model outputs an estimated probability band. PuntersEdge groups published selections into three confidence tiers. These bands are model outputs, not guarantees and not promises of profit.
Staking tiers are standardised to keep the record consistent: VALUE = 1u, STRONG = 2u, BANKER = 3u. One unit is defined as 1% of the starting bank. This is a record-keeping convention, not personal financial advice.
XGBoost is useful for pattern detection across structured sports data. It can weight interacting variables better than simple rules. It does not prove a pick will win, cannot predict random events, and cannot remove market efficiency. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.
Backtests use out-of-sample testing, multiple time windows and fixed rules. We avoid cherry-picked periods and do not retroactively change thresholds to make old results look better.
BANKER does not mean certainty. It means the selection sits in the 85%+ model confidence band. BANKER tips still lose. Historical BANKER strike rate shown on the record page: 63%. That historical strike rate is not a prediction or guarantee of future results.