🏉 NRL Round 11 — Model Overview
Round 11 of the 2026 National Rugby League season is locked in and our XGBoost model has processed every fixture. Here's what the data is saying this week — plus our qualifying tips for the round.
Our recent NRL record: 4W/5L (44% strike rate) on qualifying tips over the last 4 weeks. Every result is tracked publicly at puntersedge.online/record.
How We Pick Our NRL Round 11 Tips
For each Round 11 fixture, the model analyses rolling form (last 3, 5 and 10 games), head-to-head records, home ground advantage, score differentials and current momentum. Only games where the model reaches 65% confidence or higher generate a tip — everything else is a NO BET.
This round the model has identified 0 qualifying tips. Here's the full breakdown:
Round 11 Fixture Tips
Sharks vs Bulldogs
📅 Friday 15 May at Suncorp Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Rabbitohs vs Dolphins
📅 Friday 15 May at Suncorp Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Wests Tigers vs Sea Eagles
📅 Saturday 16 May at Suncorp Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Roosters vs Cowboys
📅 Saturday 16 May at Suncorp Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Eels vs Storm
📅 Saturday 16 May at Suncorp Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Titans vs Knights
📅 Sunday 17 May at Suncorp Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Warriors vs Broncos
📅 Sunday 17 May at Suncorp Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Panthers vs Dragons
📅 Sunday 17 May at Suncorp Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Raiders vs Dolphins
📅 Thursday 21 May at GIO Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Bulldogs vs Storm
📅 Friday 22 May at Accor Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Dragons vs Warriors
📅 Saturday 23 May at Jubilee Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Sea Eagles vs Titans
📅 Saturday 23 May at 4 Pines Park
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Cowboys vs Rabbitohs
📅 Sunday 24 May at Queensland Country Bank Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Staking Guide for Round 11
As always, size your bets according to the tip tier:
- 💰 VALUE (1u) — 65–74% model confidence. Solid edge but some uncertainty.
- 💪 STRONG (2u) — 75–84% confidence. Double your standard unit.
- 🏆 BANKER (3u) — 85%+ confidence. Maximum recommended stake.
Keep your unit size at 1–2% of your total bankroll. Consistency over a full season is where the edge shows up — not in any single round.
Get Every NRL Tip This Season
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Or join the free channel for one tip per day: t.me/ThePuntersEdgeAU
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