Decimal Odds — The Australian Standard
Australian bookmakers (Sportsbet, TAB, Pointsbet, Ladbrokes, Betfair) all display decimal odds. Unlike fractional odds used in the UK or American moneylines, decimal odds are clean and easy to work with once you understand the system.
The decimal odds represent the total return per $1 staked — including your original stake back.
- $2.00 odds: You bet $10, you get $20 back ($10 profit + $10 stake)
- $1.50 odds: You bet $10, you get $15 back ($5 profit + $10 stake)
- $4.00 odds: You bet $10, you get $40 back ($30 profit + $10 stake)
Calculating Your Return
Simple formula: Return = Stake × Odds
Profit = Return - Stake
Examples:
- $50 at $1.90: Return = $95, Profit = $45
- $20 at $3.50: Return = $70, Profit = $50
- $100 at $1.40: Return = $140, Profit = $40
Converting Odds to Implied Probability
This is where it gets powerful. Every set of odds implies a probability of that outcome occurring. The formula: Implied Probability = 1 ÷ Decimal Odds
- $2.00 → 1 ÷ 2.00 = 50%
- $1.70 → 1 ÷ 1.70 = 58.8%
- $3.00 → 1 ÷ 3.00 = 33.3%
- $1.30 → 1 ÷ 1.30 = 76.9%
Why does this matter? Because when you compare the bookmaker's implied probability to your own estimate of the true probability, you can identify value bets — selections where the bookmaker is underestimating the chance of an outcome.
The Bookmaker's Margin (Overround)
If you add up the implied probabilities of all outcomes in a market, they'll always exceed 100%. The excess is the bookmaker's margin — their built-in profit.
Example — AFL match, three outcomes:
- Home win $2.10 → 47.6%
- Away win $1.85 → 54.1%
- Total: 101.7%
That 1.7% excess is the bookmaker's margin on this market. In Australian sports betting, margins typically run 4-8% depending on the sport and market. This is why you need genuine edge to profit long-term — you have to overcome this margin consistently.
Short Prices vs Long Prices
A word on short-priced favourites: odds below $1.50 require an extremely high win rate to show profit. At $1.40, you need to win 71.4% of the time just to break even. Our model only releases tips where confidence exceeds 65% — which means we're rarely recommending bets at very short prices unless confidence is correspondingly very high.
Using Odds With Our Tips
Our tips tell you who to back and at what stake level. We recommend always shopping odds across multiple bookmakers — Sportsbet, TAB, Ladbrokes and Pointsbet often vary by 5-15 cents on the same selection. Over a season, getting the best available price on every tip makes a meaningful difference to returns.
Members get the full daily card at 7am AEST via Telegram — every qualifying tip across AFL, NRL, NBA, EPL, LaLiga, Bundesliga and Tennis. Track record: puntersedge.online/record. $29/month, cancel anytime.
Free tip: t.me/ThePuntersEdgeAU
18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling Help Online: 1800 858 858.